A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
